It’s a sad duty to pay a yearly homage to the Atlanta Braves, but their comeback win against the Phillies was pretty impressive. To see just how impressive it was, check out this graph. It shows the likelihood of a Braves victory plotted against how far along the game was. As you can see, the Phillies almost had it in the bag; they led by 3 with two outs in the ninth. However, Troy Glaus hit a two-run homer, Jason Heyward hit a solo homer to tie the game, and then Nate McLouth homered in the tenth inning to win.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. See that tiny uptick just to the left of the Heyward home run? That was Troy Glaus’ homer. It only increased the chance the Braves would win by 2.8 percent. Come on, 2.8 percent? It’s gotta have been a bigger deal than that!